Maris Lauri: lähim 2 aastat on ettevõtetele keeruline

Majandusanalüütik Maris Lauri ütles täna palgainfo seminaril, et vähenenud töövõimeline elanikkond sunnib tööandjatele peale palgaralli.

Maris Lauri sõnul on lähima kahe aasta jooksul vaja ettevõtetel otsustada kuidas nad lahendavad kasvavat tööjõupuudust. Ühe võimalusena nägi ta olemasolevate töötajate koolitamist keerukamate tööde jaoks ning lisaks võtta juurde tööjõuturul olevaid väljaõpet vajavaid töötuid. Ettevõtted, kes investeeringuid väljaõppesse teha ei soovi on sunnitud kasutama teist võimalust ning üle ostma kvalifitseeritud tööjõudu teistest ettevõtetest.

„Kuidas tulla ümberõppega toime, see on kõigi ettevõtjate lähteülesanne lähima 2 aasta jooksul. See on keerukas aeg tööandjatele. Oluliselt paremas positsioonis on töövõtja. Oht on palgaralli tulekul, kui tööandjad hakkavad massiliselt üle ostma. Olemasolevatele uute tööde pakkumine, täiend- ja ümberõpe on kindlasti mõistlikum, kui naabertööandjalt töötaja ära krabamine“, ütles Lauri.

Palgaga ülemeelitamine käivitab Lauri sõnul palgaralli ning järgmise mulli oht on majandusse sisseprogrammeeritud. “Keskmine majandusseis pole euroliidus väga roosiline, samas Eestis näitab majandustõus kolme protsendilist tõusu. Oleme jõudnud seisu kus töötajaid eriti pole. Reaalselt on meil 50 000 töötajat vähem, kui annab rahvaloenduse andmetega võrreldes (580-570 tuhat) ja meil on tegelikult ka töötuid kümme tuhat vähem. Olukorra teeb on veelgi pingelisemaks nende töötute arv, kes on kuni 6 kuud tööta, see on vähenenud 19 tuhandele (suvel väheneb see veelgi). Sealt me kogu tööturu vajadust ei saa“, selgitas Lauri tööturu tagamaid.

Lauri prognoosib tööturul halvemat tööhõivet neile, kes on tööta olnud 12-23 kuud ja muutumatuna näib tema arvates trend selles segmendis, kes tööta olnud rohkem kui 2 aastast.

Tööjõu puuduse üheks põhjuseks tõi Lauri suurenenud väljarände, kuna väiksemate töötasudega inimeste reaaltulud on tublisti vähenenud. Toidu- ja eluasemekulude tõus on seeläbi jätnud neile veel vähem raha kätte ja paratamatult sunnib see otsima uusi töövõimalusi mujalt.

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